Finance Blog

Spring 2011 Housing Market Prediction

Written by Ilyce Glink on February 4, 2011 in Real Estate  |   3 comments

Spring 2011 Housing Market Prediction I’d like to start this look at real estate in 2011 by telling you that there are indeed green shoots coming up. I’d love to say that there are indications of people starting to think about buying homes and that…

Spring 2011 Housing Market Prediction

I’d like to start this look at real estate in 2011 by telling you that there are indeed green shoots coming up. I’d love to say that there are indications of people starting to think about buying homes and that lenders have relaxed lending standards so that more buyers can get financing and more homeowners can refinance.

I’d like to tell you that real estate property values are rising and that your home equity will be restored by year’s end.

The problem is I’d be lying if I told you the real estate housing market is returning to anything resembling normal.

Unfortunately, I don’t have a lot of good news in my spring real estate 2011 market forecast. In short, I think the housing market is going to be very much the same as what we’ve been seeing over the past few years since the housing bubble burst, with maybe even more foreclosures than in 2010.

And the foreclosure numbers in 2010 were just awful. According to the Year-End 2010 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report from RealtyTrac, 2010 had a 2 percent increase in foreclosure filings over 2009, and an increase of 23 percent over 2008. One in forty-five U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing—defined as a default notice, scheduled auction, or bank repossession—in 2010.

The top ten states for foreclosures in 2010 were:

  1. Nevada
  2. Arizona
  3. Florida
  4. California
  5. Utah
  6. Georgia
  7. Michigan
  8. Idaho
  9. Illinois
  10. Colorado

CoreLogic reported that in November 2010, just seven states saw home values rise from a year earlier. Forty-three states saw home values fall, and the average home price fell by over 5 percent from November 2009.

The top fifteen states with the biggest drop in home values were:

  1. Idaho -13.56%
  2. Alabama -11.18%
  3. Arizona -10.38%
  4. Oregon -9.26%
  5. Mississippi -8.37%
  6. Missouri -8.23%
  7. Florida -8.16%
  8. Delaware -8.01%
  9. Utah -7.78%
  10. Illinois -7.51%
  11. Washington -7.38%
  12. Montana -6.34%
  13. New Mexico -6.30%
  14. Wisconsin -6.10%
  15. Maryland -6.01%

If you look at the states on this list, the ones with the biggest drop in home prices are those with steep unemployment rates and a backload of foreclosures. One state surprisingly missing from this list is California.

While California has a high unemployment rate and a high state deficit and is losing residents, parts of the California housing market have come back, thanks to things like an extra home buyer state tax credit for the purchase of a new home.

But that doesn’t mean California’s real estate market has normalized. It hasn’t. And depending on the number of foreclosures the state has this year, its home prices could fall by the end of 2011.

Are there any bright spots? Mortgage interest rates remain low, though they are up from the very bottom in November 2010. And some lenders are beginning to consider allowing borrowers with credit scores of 500 to 600 to purchase homes with FHA loans (and higher down payments), which is good.

Still, builder sentiment is flat, and the new-construction industry is coming off its second-worst year ever. It seems as though real estate in 2011 could look a lot like it did in 2010.

Ilyce R. Glink is the author of several books, including 100 Questions Every First-Time Home Buyer Should Ask and Buy, Close, Move In!. She blogs about money and real estate atThinkGlink.com and at the Home Equity blog for CBS MoneyWatch.


Why Mortgage Lenders Pull Your Credit History Twice
How to Save More Money at Home
Is Now the Right Time to Buy a Vacation Home along the Gulf of Mexico?
Want a Principal Reduction Loan Modification? The New Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) Rules You’ll Have to Live By


  1. Editor, Equifax Personal Finance Blog says:

    Comment from John at ActiveRain:

    Ilyce, I think it will different in different markets. I certainly don't think we are in for a Boom this year. I have been getting more inquiries from the Upper Midwest as folks are tiring of the winter snows…Have a Great Weekend!


  2. Editor, Equifax Personal Finance Blog says:

    Comment from Tommy at ActiveRain:

    Ilyce- I know every market has some differences but as a whole it's been pretty tough over the last couple of years. My local market has not seen the decline in values and high rate of foreclosures that have been talked about all over the country. Things have started to pick up some here and I have a bright outlook for 2001, although I realize it will take years for the activity to get back to what we perceive to be normal.


  3. Editor, Equifax Personal Finance Blog says:

    Comment from Bryan at ActiveRain:

    I think predictions for 2011 will be very market dependent. Within California, I know large markets in good areas that are doing very well. Silicon Valley luxury markets (or near luxury) are doing extremely well and sales are already pointing to a strong start for the year. It would not surprise me if Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Saratoga, Palo Alto, Atherton, Mountain View, Cupertino, and Sunnyvale all experience ASP and MSP increases in Q1 vs. Q4 of 2010 and Q1 2010.


Leave a Comment

Name :

Commenting guidelines

We welcome your interest and participation on this forum, but be aware that comments will be published at Equifax's sole discretion. Please don't use this blog to submit questions or concerns about your Equifax credit report or raise customer service issues. Instead, you should contact Equifax directly for all such matters and any attempts to do so in this forum will be promptly re-directed.

Some other factors to consider when commenting:
  1. Registration and privacy. While no registration is required to visit our forum, participants wishing to post a message must register by creating an account. All personal information provided by forum members incident to registration is governed by our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
  2. All comments are anonymous. We'll delete your name, e-mail address, and any other identifying information, including details about your investments.
  3. We can't post or respond to every comment - As much as we'd like to, we can't post every comment, nor can we guarantee that we will respond to each individual message. All questions or comments about your Equifax credit report or similar customer service issues should be handled by contacting Equifax directly.
  4. Don't offer specific legal, tax or financial advice. All of the materials on this Site are for information, education, and noncommercial purposes only and this forum is not intended as a means of expressing views or ideas regarding any specific legal, tax, or investment advice. While offering general rules of thumb is both permitted and encouraged, recommending specific ideas or strategies regarding investments, taxes, and related matters is prohibited.
  5. Credit Repair. This blog is not intended as a venue for the discussion or exchange of ideas regarding credit repair or other strategies intended to assist visitors and community members improve or otherwise modify their credit histories, ratings or scores.
  6. Stay on topic. Your comment should be concise and pertain to the specific post in question.
  7. Be respectful of the community. The use of profanity, offensive language, spam, and personal attacks will not be tolerated and egregious or repeat offenders will be banned from future participation. We encourage disagreement and healthy debate, but please refrain from personal attacks on our WordPresss and contributors.
  8. Finally: Participation in this forum may be terminated by Equifax immediately and without notice for failure to comply with any guidelines or Terms of Use. As such, you should familiarize yourself with all pertinent requirements prior to submitting any response through the blog or otherwise. All opinions expressed in this forum are solely those of the individual submitting the comment, and don't necessarily represent the views of Equifax or its management.

Equifax maintains this interactive forum for education and information purposes in order to allow individuals to share their relevant knowledge and opinions with other members and visitors. We encourage you to participate in discussions about personal finance issues and other topics of interest to this community, but please read our commenting guidelines first. Equifax reserves the right to monitor postings to the forum and comments will be published at our discretion. Do you have questions or comments about your Equifax credit report or customer-service issues regarding an Equifax product? If so, please contact Equifax directly. All opinions and information expressed or shared in blog comments are solely those of the person submitting the comments, and don't necessarily represent the views of Equifax or its management.

Real Estate Archive

Stay Informed Sign up for our FREE Equifax email Newsletter